Sports Analytics & Fitness

Half Marathon Time Predictor

Predict your exact half marathon finish time and optimize your race day pacing strategy using your recent 5K or 10K race performances.

miles
min
Predicted Half Marathon Time
1:55:16

Calculated locally in your browser. Fast, secure, and private.

The Ultimate Endurance Middle Ground

The Half Marathon (13.1 miles or 21.0975 kilometers) has exploded in popularity to become the most favored long-distance race in the world. It provides the grueling, rewarding challenge of endurance running without the brutal, months-long recovery required by a full marathon.

However, pacing a Half Marathon is notoriously difficult. It is too long to sprint like a 5K, but too short to jog comfortably like a Sunday long run. You must hold your body precisely at its lactate threshold for nearly two hours.

Predicting the Pain Cave

To find your perfect race pace, coaches rely on prediction models based on your recent performance in shorter races (like a 5K or 10K). The most accurate and universally adopted model is Pete Riegel's formula.

The Formula

Riegel's formula mathematically calculates exactly how much your pace will naturally degrade as you double or triple the distance you are used to running.

T2=T1(13.1/D1)1.06\begin{aligned} T2 = T1 * (13.1 / D1)^1.06 \end{aligned}

Where:
T2=
Your predicted time for the Half Marathon
T1=
Your actual time from a recent, shorter race
D1=
Distance of your recent race (e.g., 6.2 for a 10K)

The Strategy of the Half

If your prediction calculator tells you that your potential finish time is 1 hour and 45 minutes, that dictates a strict 8:00 min/mile pace.

  • Miles 1-3 (The Trap): Adrenaline will make 8:00 feel incredibly slow. You must actively restrain yourself from running 7:30 miles, or you will flood your legs with lactic acid.
  • Miles 4-10 (The Grind): You lock into the 8:00 pace. It will feel progressively harder.
  • Miles 11-13.1 (The Finish): This is where the prediction is tested. If you paced correctly, you will have just enough glycogen left to hold on or even slightly accelerate to the finish line.

Frequently Asked Questions

Always use the longest recent race you have. A 10K prediction will always be vastly more accurate for a Half Marathon than a 5K prediction, because the 10K relies on the exact same aerobic energy systems as the longer race.

The calculator assumes you have done the specific endurance training required for 13.1 miles. If you run a blazing fast 5K but your longest weekend training run is only 6 miles, your legs will simply give out at mile 9 regardless of your cardiovascular fitness.

For a beginner, finishing under 2 hours and 15 minutes is a fantastic goal. A sub-2-hour half marathon (9:09 min/mile pace) is widely considered the benchmark of a dedicated, highly fit recreational runner.